Thursday, 27 April 2017

2017 Election Prediction

As usual, I am making my election predictions.  I did this in 2010 (nearly right) and 2015 (wrong).  This is not a picture of what I want, but of what, at this point, I think likely, given what is happening with polls and the news, and looking up some marginal seats etc.  I have previously generally under-estimated the Tory vote, which might be dangerous in this election.  I shall have more to say about the election in subsequent posts, but here is my prediction

SNP 45 seats
Down 11, losing 10 to the Tories, and 1 to the Lib Dems.

Lib Dems 25 seats
Mainly gained from Labour and Tories.  I feel very uncertain about this figure and think their fortunes could change a lot, one way or the other, according to how the campaign rolls out.

Plaid Cymru 4 seats
A gain from Labour.

Green 1 seat
Holding onto their Brighton seat.  I did wonder if they might pick up Bristol, where they challenged Labour before, but I think the Tories will sweep up that seat.

Irish Parties 18 seats
I think there will be a movement towards Sinn Fein.

UKIP
They will lose their seat.

Labour 160 seats
They will lose 72 seats, and end up just worse off than the Tories in 1997.  This could go 20+ either way.  They will be somewhat protected by the fact they start (and end) with nothing in Scotland, and the fact that the safest seats in the country are Labour.

Conservatives 397 seats
Just short of Labour's victory in 1997.

Result - a Conservative majority of 144

As we mark 20 years since 1997, we see a complete reversal in fortunes.

Note added on 8th June
Given the movements of the polls during this campaign, I revise this to a Conservative majority of 56 - but feel quite uncertain about it.  If I am right, it shows the squandering of a significant lead by Mrs May.

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