Monday, 20 April 2015

The Banbury Man's 2015 General Election Forecast

Here is the Banbury Man’s 2015 General Election Result prediction:

Labour  285
Conservative 268
SNP 45
Liberal Democrat 27
UKIP 2
Green 1
Others 22

I base this on my observation of polls, reports, opinion, and my own gut feelings.  To explain UKIP, I believe they will retain Clacton, gain Thurrock, and lose Rochester.  I have a feeling that Farage will not succeed in Thanet South, which will be a relief to the rest of the country.  Green will retain Brighton, but not make gains elsewhere.  The big stories are SNP scooping many Labour seats in Scotland, and the retreat of the Lib Dems (I have been more generous to them than many polls).

Looking at the figures, it seems clear Labour will need to work with SNP on a confidence and supply basis (Labour have ruled out a coalition, and, in any case, no UK party should form a coalition with a nationalist party).  Labour (or indeed Tory) plus Lib Dem does not reach the magic 323 needed for a majority (I exclude the speaker and Sinn Fein), nor does it seem that other parties plus Lib Dems would help either party into power.  Put simply, SNP have the power to help a party to a majority, and have ruled out supporting the Conservatives, so, even if the Tories are the largest party, which is possible, I doubt they could form a government.  The other parties mainly consist of the Northern Irish parties, who have all given out mixed messages about how they would support either of the parties.

I will follow the result in Banbury, a safe Conservative seat, but where the MP has stepped down.  It will be interesting to see if Victoria Prentis for the Tories will maintain the 18,000 majority.

My new adopted constituency, Finchley and Golders Green (once the haunt of Margaret Thatcher) is much more interesting.  Held by the Tories since 2010, Lord Ashcroft’s recent poll put Labour 2% ahead, so it is really on a knife edge.  The incumbent Tory did not even bother to pop down the Northern Line and vote on the NHS Stealth Privatisation bill, so my hope is in Sarah Sackman for Labour.  I have lived in London long enough to see that London does not work for people like me, and Labour has plans to change that J


Anyway, this was not meant to be a party political broadcast, but a Partly Political Forecast.  Watch and see if I am right on 7th May…..

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